Trump vs. Harris: Who's Leading in the Final Polls?
According to SHAHEDNEWS, As the U.S. presidential election approaches, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a tight race. With less than two weeks to go until Election Day on November 5, polling averages show that Harris is leading Trump nationally by 1.9 points, but the two are neck and neck in crucial swing states.
To win, candidates must secure 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes. The swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina — are key to determining the outcome.
Who's in the Lead?
As of Wednesday, Harris leads the national polls with 47% of the vote according to a Washington Post poll. Trump holds the same support in some surveys, indicating a very close race. A Reuters/Ipsos poll gives Harris a 46% to 43% edge over Trump.
However, the popular vote is not what decides the presidency — it's the Electoral College that matters. In 2020, Joe Biden won with 306 electoral votes, but if the race is tighter in 2024, Trump could still win despite trailing Harris nationally. This scenario occurred in 2016 when Trump won despite losing the popular vote.
What About Swing States?
The key battleground states in this election are Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Together, these states hold 93 electoral votes. Polls show Harris and Trump within a margin of error in all seven, with Trump slightly ahead in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. Harris is leading narrowly in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
If these razor-thin margins hold, Trump is expected to win. But any small shift in favor of Harris, especially in states like Michigan or Pennsylvania, could hand her the victory.
In the 2020 election, Georgia and Arizona flipped to Democratic blue after decades of Republican dominance. Now, Trump is leading in both, making these states critical for Harris if she hopes to repeat the Democratic wins.
Can Polls Be Trusted?
Polls have been notoriously unreliable in past elections, including 2016 and 2020, when they underestimated Trump's support. Although poll trackers combine data from various sources to reduce bias, past inaccuracies have caused public trust in polling to decline. In the 2022 midterms, polls underestimated Democratic support, further muddying the waters for this election.
As Election Day draws near, the results remain uncertain. Even the smallest shifts in voter turnout or preferences could change the trajectory of the race, making the 2024 presidential election one of the most unpredictable in recent history.
Source: Al Jazeera
